As work gets underway this week on another >10MW ground-mount solar farm in Wales – as part of the pre-April 2014 mud-drenched UK solar PV bonanza – how far can things go, in terms of project size?

This article does a quick scan through some of the largest UK installations over the past fifteen years, and then asks: how big for 2014? And is the quest for super-sizing everything all good?
Finlay Colville
Finlay Colville

NPD Solarbuzz, Vice President

Finlay Colville is Vice President of Solarbuzz. Read more about Finlay Colville →

As work gets underway this week on another >10MW ground-mount solar farm in Wales – as part of the pre-April 2014 mud-drenched UK solar PV bonanza – how far can things go, in terms of project size?

This article does a quick scan through some of the largest UK installations over the past fifteen years, and then asks: how big for 2014? And is the quest for super-sizing everything all good?

Previously, the UK PV industry effectively limited projects at the 5MW level, when solar PV farms were viable only through the feed-in tariff (FiT) levels of 2011 and 2012. Several dozen solar farms of this size were completed in 2011 and 2012. After this, most large-scale ground-mount projects (but not all) shifted to the renewable obligation certificate (ROC) mechanism that was the preferred funding platform (due to large-scale FIT cuts and declining PV system costs).

In theory, ROCs have no capacity limit, other than thresholds for approval needed for national grid interconnection. In 2013, the Wymeswold solar farm characterised the economy-of-scale capability of solar PV under ROCs. The size of the Wymeswold solar plant was greater than the entire solar PV capacity deployed in the UK before 2010 (which in hindsight was not that challenging).

So, assuming land is found, projects get the go-ahead, financing is put in place and returns are acceptable, will the 33MW of Wymeswold get beaten in 2014?

Super-sized Wymeswolds: the quest for 50MW solar farms in the UK

First, let’s put things in context with a quick scan down through the archives. The top half of figure 1 shows solar PV in the UK from 2001 to 2010: the pre-FiT years. Headlines were routinely provided in the UK when projects exceeded the 100kW level, with the idea of putting panels on the ground as crazy then as the UK becoming a top-10 country for PV. The top graphic shows some of the largest projects in each year from 2001 to 2010 (not exactly annual leaders by year, but not far off).

The bottom half of figure 1 then shows the period when the sun came out in the UK. During 2011 and 2012, there wasn’t really a medal for the largest PV system in the UK – there were just lots of 5MW farms built, some with (real) capacity that has snuck up to 5.5MW by now. The graphic also takes a stab at identifying the most likely prospect for being 2014’s answer to Wymeswold.

At the end of January, there were about 15 solar PV sites earmarked for system deployment that have capacity larger than Wymeswold. No surprise also that four of these sites are former airfields, following a trend seen several years ago in the former East Germany.

Two leading candidates for the largest UK plant in 2014 are Fakenham Solar Park and Landmead Solar Farm. I’ve stuck my neck out on Fakenham, purely to get the graphic done for now!

Doing some quick analysis using projects within the UK portion of the new NPD Solarbuzz Global Deal Tracker report, the UK now has an active pipeline of more than 3.4GW (projects planned, approved, or under construction, and excluding all those terminated or at pre-planning). The list of projects being rejected or withdrawn is also on the rise, and it won’t be long until we are talking GW figures for this category also and mapping out the danger zones for developers!

However, assuming that the rain does actually stop in 2014, and we have some fairly mild and dry summer months – possibly helped by an Indian summer – then all the signs are still good for a >2GW calendar year solar PV deployment figure for the UK (adding up the rooftops and ground-mount, and including all residential and non-residential PV).

How much the flooding and infrastructure chaos impacts on Q1 2014 figures is yet to be seen. With 1.4ROCs seen as viable, some of the projects (originally slated for pre-April interconnection) will probably simply roll into the next fiscal year but still be 2014 build-outs, albeit with reduced returns. Some that were on the wire at 1.6ROCs will vanish, but the capacity within this category may be less than previously feared.

Whether the trend of bigger-and-better will last is one of those thorny questions that few in the industry want to address. But at some point, the issue will come up, while probably not getting much attention in the pending DECC solar strategy documentation. It may be that the question will only really get resolved if the UK shifts to an annual market cap for solar PV, and moves away from the unofficial caps that are currently acting as a barrier to overall deployment levels.
Finlay Colville
Finlay Colville

NPD Solarbuzz, Vice President

Finlay Colville is Vice President of Solarbuzz. Read more about Finlay Colville →